1 (edited by Max 2022-12-13 10:10 PM)

Topic: 2022 Lemons Results File

Hello Lemoners!

Like I did in 2021, I compiled the results of the 2022 Lemons races into one Excel file to pick apart and feed my analytical soul.

See the two links if you’re a data-nerd like me or might be interested in seeing how things turned out.  The “HC” file is hard-coded so y’all can mess with the file without constantly breaking formulas and pivot tables.  The other file includes everything if you are interested in seeing the formulas I used for determining the winners of each class and whatnot.  Both files are read-only but you should be able to download them if you want to.

Disclosure that the files are only as good as the input data.  I tried to correct misspellings and use common terms (“Chevrolet” versus “Chevy”) but I’m sure I missed a thing or ten (darn you “Camero” owners).  This is all in fun anyway so take from it what you will.

Some highlights/insights from 2022:
-1,095,511 competition miles were driven (see the “Distance” sheet)
-#17 was the most popular car number, coincidentally it was used 17 times (for reasons unknown #181 was used 13 times) (see the “Team Numbers” sheet)
-The overall composition of the classes was roughly even: A class-31%, B class-39%, C class-25%, with 3% signing up, paying, but not starting (see the “Race Composition” sheet)
-The widest disparity between the winners of A class and C class was at Autobahn with the C class winner completing 80% of the A class winner’s laps (see the “Race Class Laps” sheet)
-The team fielding the most entrants was “Braking Bad Racing” (20) followed by “ONSET/Tetanus Racing” (15) (see the “Teams” sheet)
-BMW was the manufacturer with the most cars (283) and laps-driven (73,168).  Also of note: Mazda and Ford also fielded a ton of cars and laps.  Mazda had 228 cars with 55,507 laps and Ford had 257 cars and 55,441 laps (see the “Manufacturer Details” and “Manufacturer by Class” sheets)
-The manufactures with the most class trophies: A class-BMW (8 or 38%), B class-Toyota (3 or 14%), C class-Ford (5 or 24%) (see the “Manufacturer %” sheet)
-The most run model of car (I added up the differently-named as I could figure them) was the Mazda Miata (151) followed by the BMW E36 (100), Ford Mustang (91), BMW E30 (72), and Honda Civic (66) (see the “Model by Class” sheet)
-To see how the various models are represented overall versus several categories (Win %, Class wins, Top 10, by thirds) check out the “Model %” sheet

There are several other sheets to check out too.

Have fun!

Hard Coded - https://1drv.ms/x/s!AsQEf_u4ajkkhEij5ir … p?e=Ktc9XR [1drv.ms]
Full File - https://1drv.ms/x/s!AsQEf_u4ajkkhEZMqTYgfpqdGPGN [1drv.ms]

Re: 2022 Lemons Results File

Max wrote:

-The widest disparity between the winners of A class and C class was at Autobahn with the C class winner completing 80% of the A class winner’s laps (see the “Race Class Laps” sheet)

oof, I feel this one. thanks for the effort compiling these!

"THE WONDERMENT CONSORTIUM"
Everything dies baby that's a fact,
But maybe everything that dies someday comes back?

Re: 2022 Lemons Results File

Agreed... Good stuff...Thank You

Cordoba

Re: 2022 Lemons Results File

Very cool. I enjoy this type stuff as well. Thanks for sharing.

Off-Kilter Racing
'62 Plymouth Valiant "ToadRacer" - Organizer's Choice, IOE...
'86 Toyota MR2 (needs engine)

Re: 2022 Lemons Results File

I was feeling nerdy today and wondering which races were the closest in terms of competition. I used this data to calculate what percentage of the lead car's distance each team did, and then calculate the mean, median and standard deviation for each race. By both mean and median, the Smells Like AMC Spirit race had the most competitive field, with the median car doing 80.8% of the lead car's laps and the mean car doing 73%. However I think that comes with an asterisk, because there were only 40 cars there, for an average of 16 cars per mile of track, which is the second emptiest race of the year. Other races that were competitive were the BFE GP in Colorado (median 78.2%), the Pitt Maneuver with a mean of 71.2%, and Lemons South Fall with a mean of 70.7%, which also had the smallest standard deviation of laps completed. The Button Turrible race had the lowest mean and StdDev, and the High Plains Drifter had the lowest median (60.9% of the lead car's laps) which makes sense given higher attrition in a 24h race.

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/VP-Oe6dK_rHhLCB54uyaI1COZUq7RuRPJeddqw7nTOENoSZGcOrQoVSr2nVaP4O4RqOt5nQSuNiC5_2QOOD8Cosm3X3ffq9IOEqyRoorl-HjWtKnjB3hLd36DfZRFeI2luAXFWk-Fk32VaGrixmLXoMKSCU-yK9IUI_NGxoVrwtMq72b9SxEepLEzkbvgxFKv8qPysVZwEPYyr6L-xXwwufHPOMuk7L0biW0iVRTUa0EIKtP-JJyrONm5r-lihtaPeNiakAed3M0wrBDuSAs_804VuAk_MI3y7dFedtpeP2BsmKbc9ZP67tvOiuk790bxU6yt1E6qHvQtu-m2LhHMG3zalss_HpXk6HHHHjMOWu70YSqIthh6EsUJ2M2ZXvYjRuxl6SwdaB19ifYVED1sDiQJBZXlgwgsLw03G1PESRB9uRlTAmZcXl3nb3HTPw4fJ4_QiOpVownQojwnSZt5GsZfiEuYDbXbkxPt72Pnh8hkriu_ueu9YsK-C1Tf08tgVgWIAjAF86JZkn9Tzxj6gMYftzi4R5coP_kw-e3dlv70G84Wx4suaWHpgo--6QHrxCfoQbGyyUee8drhbTdQJk4NvxIJCEpDlWp-Mw5gjsSBPoP2_ghBM1lCDfqHwA1qNkYDGQKDeEy046jPE9XMUtmCPhLu8IbL1HzjbdEsihxqtQaMMVfYaUo00TB0EY1c0wrhuC_xdftvqt1syjINL2XH_MPdLPCbbzU8G4aiXqPw51golrMY_y9n7wohOpqG2RVRztScR3GO2qYoZTbP8CHVhxItTbedx_CfUbg66flCYS-W1Z0_-8_dLNP54yCkSC5ZCrdoSKWCLcXqNoAgvs2g8wwEH7TzBumVp_mpTqwbk39ZqdrrxCQH_UN4RsIjwXToVGC81QuAY97uZHY_mhTYaFCADhYYMWZvf8GHPV9yCLmZQFz8iqKUiyXD2QJe9mkAJgDvF7qmNgNfTfUpECi1gi2ocf691NocRvAd0YUuvHQMFzs2UsaXg=w1170-h587-s-no?authuser=0

There is no correlation between how crowded the field is and how many cars are near the lead, but there may be a weak signal of more crowded races having a more spread out field by StdDev, as traffic slows down more inexperienced drivers and possibly more incidents happen.

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/Zf5ljT7kam33hwSOTKiH8ajoyKIx5a-jpsju4txSLiZN3xxnsGD6Voq-JdKRGDrYY4Lz3mQ9y1l0HPUE_ulQo4FQcR_3U95BeW_cBnEu2fTjxDZGeSYQuzgn1wgQu9aCetaGc0XorDqZiZCMe_NcXLqmtQDy-oS5eq-gSxjZbk4HBWE5QVmsa8RLHixEFc2M89GndMetLQLd9zBde6IMvq2s78j2EcpM52ADEDSWd0lnub-D4VQoXzsmHsp8eeXHOjc8sRgWMgf4wXXq2KTkKSJrBP0eCok1FJ5mE59Y4RXzJKIMuclHjXBzw-6-msvSbq9F1zxCiEO6ZiLtZ_Cn0RtH4WR7E9LmufQzlnIhpoEb18QIclKBK09JL4Fs3Z0Me4PvCv4MZTzgtoT9ZsjUd3E3sYl-r7ySDgj52kvd_oyOZrtH3Yx71bwB8agCOtvDh8Pm60AVb_HFv9rqiHFrxV2ANiITT5JUw2JgMIdiE5oLk8VYjyCWtM2aAdo3GIifADmSFxSrjSb_pBle5nJr3wC85_XBRLqSEga9sOnhi-y4wVdUEPF22HwRHNQvxlOm0VYHlRoBvnZ5pqCizB9T-ccoHyQN7yLrexa4oW-1P8pS9e13s6tIDcLTrhm1b6xGK52vcCYaJnntmaj2cCWRCyBEfelbW76CLHTxqaeTMif7eh490vwdIqHt_Ajs4eU-RGfJkyvd3D5FesHcwOQYlhDDvboRHxPtWQGWflWUokbS1x4bQcRxe63ZZG-eCkJCsHTIsWIvhLfyKXcLNmifn7z6jpdex0C2W-zJMUdOnHFcJcKggeTra9dNfHTewS2gioefCYVggRhIATVNW1DxoqREAWGrlWu1_6QjBkT9ZSjL77ziN6a_aAS1V6xJIruwQwNqXuidGaH1JompkBWbeTaVLOzVs47V2Nd7qWL0MEDoyjwIue93IpMyO0uQOkR62z2jbN8YvMf2zfWq6btaJ40reCNjKx5eTH8jTTFNOcakWhB0atI9nA8EYw=w751-h465-s-no?authuser=0

Here is the link to the sortable data:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ … sp=sharing

Re: 2022 Lemons Results File

Posted this on last year's data dump, but my figure of Domination Factor was basically a measure of standard deviation. Long story short, here are the races whose winners had the most and least standard deviation.

I don't know offhand what the average winners' DF is, but I'd guess it's around 1.55 or so. Anecdotaly, it seems like the vast majority fall between 1.480-1.600 (ie The race winner will do about 1.5 times the average number of laps).

All Winning Domination Factors ever over 1.750

1.977 - Toledo '08 (24 Hours/Lemons Pre-History - Sofa King)
1.939 - MSR '13 (24 Hours - Z-Wrecks)
1.908 - ECR '12 (24 Hours - Pulp Friction)
1.840 - MSR '10-2 (Mid-Drive Crisis)
1.832 - Buttonwillow '22 (Hella Shitty)
1.831 - High Plains '21-2 (24 Hours - 27Club/ColeFab)
1.818 - High Plains '10 (Ghetto Motorsports)
1.803 - Buttonwillow '14 (Cerveza Racing)
1.782 - Grand Bayou '11 (Overnight Race - Hong Norrth)
1.779 - CMP '17-2 (Team S.O.B.)
1.761 - MSR '08 (The Schwing Team)
1.760 - ECR '13 (Model T GT)
1.756 - ORP '21 (Saint Tomas)
1.752 - Summit Point '10 (Sgt. Schultz Zwei)

All Winner Domination Factors Under 1.400

1.312 - Autobahn '12-2 (Rainy - Skid Marks Racing)
1.333* - Sonoma Sprint Race '14 (2 Hours - Pistola Alto)
1.347 - Gingerman '17-2 (Rainy - LemonAid Racing)
1.364 - Inde '20 (It's All About the Waste)
1.365 - The Ridge '23 (In Lieu of Therapy)
1.368 - The Ridge '22 (M45 Racing)
1.369 - Brainerd '19 (Gorilla Sticker)
1.376 - NHMS '13 (Ziegel Scheisshaus)

Useless knowledge, I haz it.

Some day, I'll update the Lemons Torture Test stuff.

Eric Rood
Everything Bagel, 24 Hours of Lemons
eric@24hoursoflemons.com

7 (edited by Camper Van Someren 2023-04-10 07:43 PM)

Re: 2022 Lemons Results File

That’s a cool stat Eric. I guess a high DF shows when the judges let an exceptionally cheaty car slip through BS without penalty laps :-)

I wonder how the DF would look different if you compared the winner’s laps to the median laps. A few exploding teams can skew the average a lot. I had been thinking of races with a high winner-to-median ratio as ones with a very fast field, and races with a high winner-to-average ratio as ones with a very reliable field.

Re: 2022 Lemons Results File

Camper Van Someren wrote:

That’s a cool stat Eric. I guess a high DF shows when the judges let an exceptionally cheaty car slip through BS without penalty laps :-)

I wonder how the DF would look different if you compared the winner’s laps to the median laps. A few exploding teams can skew the average a lot. I had been thinking of races with a high winner-to-median ratio as ones with a very fast field, and races with a high winner-to-average ratio as ones with a very reliable field.

These are all legit things I've thought, just don't want to do the legwork with the data and it was reliable enough to point out that (1) Volvos are good, (2) Alfas and Mercedes do well because the only people who run them are people who have worked on them for years, (3) For the frequency with which they win, BMWs must fail a lot, and (4) I am justified in suggesting more people should race the Mazda Familia/Ford Escort family of cars.

To your first point: The overall margin of victory pretty consistently averages about 4 laps across Lemons, although 103 races (by my count) have had a finishing gap for the overall win by 0 or 1 lap. Blowouts of 10+ laps are generally pretty rare. We've only had 40 of those ever, a lot of which were in the early years of Lemons. But Lemons' way of doing things is way less fair than a 100-page rulebook, probably.

High Plains, by the way, has the weirdest outcomes: 17 races with 8 blowouts (including all the 24-hour races) but also five finishes on the lead lap for Class A (with a B car winning one of those). [BillOReillyYouCantExplainThat.gif]

The top 2 in Class A have NEVER finished on the same lap at MSR in 20 races. We also had FOUR races in a row there in 2010-2011 where a Class B car won overall [In Order: Ford Taurus SHO, Mid-Driver-Seat Mitsubishi Mirage (!), Datsun 280ZX, Mercedes 300E]. One of those finished on the same lap as the Class A winner.

Lemons judging has always been far from perfect, but it's pretty good 99 percent of the time. The more you do it, the more you realize what a successful combination really looks like (Pro Tip: The cars are usually pretty basic and minimally cheaty; complex stuff breaks easier.)

If you're curious, for the tracks we currently have races in 2023 (These are all-time numbers):

Class A
Average Finish: 1.03
Average Gap: 3.80 Laps
Average Fastest Lap Rank: 7.03
Average Percentile of Field for Fastest Lap: 91.946

Class B
Average Finish: 6.77
Average Gap: 6.91 Laps
Average Fastest Lap Rank: 27.23
Average Percentile of Field for Fastest Lap: 69.617

Class C
Average Finish: 21.36
Average Gap: 16.84 Laps
Average Fastest Lap Rank: 59.32
Average Percentile of Field for Fastest Lap: 33.685

Index of Effluency
Average Finish: 46.69
Average Fastest Lap Rank: 74.23
Average Percentile of Field for Fastest Lap: 18.810

Eric Rood
Everything Bagel, 24 Hours of Lemons
eric@24hoursoflemons.com

Re: 2022 Lemons Results File

I trust you judges, you seem to produce fun and competitive racing, and it’s all for fun at the end of the day anyway. I certainly have no hope of winning right now anyway.

That’s interesting about High Plains. That was my first race last year and I was surprised by how quick and reliable most teams seemed to be. The data seem to bear that out, that (last year at least) it was one of the most competitive races. Being noobs, we started with 25 min stints and took 3 hrs to fix a broken shift linkage, but otherwise ran well. We completed 61% of the laps of the winner, which was bottom third at that race, but there were other races last year where 61% was above average. Anyway, I’m excited to get back this June.

Re: 2022 Lemons Results File

I'm interested in the "Fastest Lap" data. The rank, and percentile, seem well correlated.

For example, how many "Fastest Lap" cars finish the race(?), and as an extension to that, how many "Top 5 Fastest Lap" cars finish.

Further, how many cars go out immediately after their Fastest Lap(?); I reviewed a few races (not just Lemons) last year and I think I remember correlation there as well, though I could be mistaken.

It's almost as if pushing the car faster than it's comfortable going makes things break...

Re: 2022 Lemons Results File

I have no idea what I'm looking at . I suspect the Cordoba brought the curve down. Just hoping to get a D or better so I don't have to go to summer school.

Cordoba

Re: 2022 Lemons Results File

Lemon_Newton-Metre wrote:

I'm interested in the "Fastest Lap" data. The rank, and percentile, seem well correlated.

For example, how many "Fastest Lap" cars finish the race(?), and as an extension to that, how many "Top 5 Fastest Lap" cars finish.

Further, how many cars go out immediately after their Fastest Lap(?); I reviewed a few races (not just Lemons) last year and I think I remember correlation there as well, though I could be mistaken.

It's almost as if pushing the car faster than it's comfortable going makes things break...

https://media.tenor.com/o2efUs6GGxkAAAAd/samiryouarebreakingthecar-samir.gif

Eric Rood
Everything Bagel, 24 Hours of Lemons
eric@24hoursoflemons.com

Re: 2022 Lemons Results File

Lemon_Newton-Metre wrote:

I'm interested in the "Fastest Lap" data. The rank, and percentile, seem well correlated.

For example, how many "Fastest Lap" cars finish the race(?), and as an extension to that, how many "Top 5 Fastest Lap" cars finish.

Further, how many cars go out immediately after their Fastest Lap(?); I reviewed a few races (not just Lemons) last year and I think I remember correlation there as well, though I could be mistaken.

It's almost as if pushing the car faster than it's comfortable going makes things break...

Pushing the car or the driver is a recipe for Lemons failure.

1992 Saturn SL2 (retired) - Elmo's Revenge -  Class B winner, Heroic Fix winner x2
1969 Rover P6B 3500S(sold) - Super G-Rover - I.O.E Winner, Class C Winner
1996 Saturn SW2 - Elmo's Revenge (reborn!), Saturn SL1  Dazzleshipm Class C x2 and IOE winner
1974 AMC Javelin - Oscar's Trash heap - IOE,”Organizer's Choice" and "I got Screwed" award winner